By now, you’ve probably heard that the experts think the 2008 hurricane season will be a busy one. Last week, forecasters with the National Weather Service released their predictions for this season calling for “a 65 percent probability of an above normal season and a 25 percent probability of a near normal season. This means there is a 90 percent chance of a near or above normal season,” according to a NOAA new release.
Forecasters predict 12 to 16 named storms, 6 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes will form between June 1 and November 30 in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. An average season is 11 storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
“The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity,” said Conrad Lautenbacher, undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “It does not predict whether, where or when any of these storms may hit land.”
That, of course, is what everyone wants to know. While I respect the science and the forecasters who issue those seasonal predictions, the one question these folks cannot answer is where or if any of those storms will make landfall. Still, at least one forecaster tries.
Joe Bastardi, senior forecaster for Accu-Weather (WPBF-TV partners with Accu-Weather for our 24-hour local weather channel, Weather First.TV) not only predicts the number of storms that will form this year but where they are mostly likely to make landfall.
Joe thinks the eastern seaboard from the Carolinas north to New England will be ground zero for landfalling storms this year. “My forecast is that two or three storms will bring at least tropical force winds to the coastline between Florida and New England, including one or two that bring hurricane force winds, and one major hurricane,” writes Joe on the Accu-Weather Professional Web site. (The Professional Web site is a subscription-based web site. Go to Accu-Weather.com for more information).
Still, other areas of the United States may be affected, too. In fact, Joe writes that the entire US coastline could be hit by a storm. The Gulf Coast, for example, may experience “at least 7-10 days with disruptions or threats of disruptions,” writes Joe.
Still, according to Joe, the “greatest threat of higher than average tropical storm and hurricane impact on the east coast of the United States with emphasis on the Carolinas northward.”
