Local Hurricane Expos

We held our last hurricane expo of the season over the weekend at the Boynton Beach Mall.

Turnout was good, with lots of nice folks taking the time to shop for hurricane information. In addition to our booth featuring Eric, Felicia, Kate and myself, more than two dozen other participants (from the Red Cross to the Palm Beach County Building Officials) answered questions and helped residents with their hurricane preparation.

I really like these events. We get a chance to meet many of our viewers, hear about their hurricane experiences (since Frances, Jeanne and Wilma just about everyone has a story to tell) and talk with some very nice people.

One of them was Marla. It was the second time I had talked with Marla face-to-face. The first time we spoke was on the phone as Hurricane Frances headed for South Florida.

Like most of us in September of 2004, Marla had never been through a hurricane. And, like most of us, she was scared. After all, it was just her and her two tiny dogs in an apartment in Boynton Beach with a big, bad hurricane outside.

During our hurricane coverage I would take phone calls from viewers, listening to their concerns, asking about their hurricane preparations and doing everything I could to try to calm them down. One of those callers was Marla.

Of all the phone calls I took during the Hurricane Frances coverage, I remember Marla’s the best. I’m not sure why. Maybe it was her situation (alone with 2 dogs) or perhaps the fear in her voice when she told me how scared she was that Saturday evening. I remember talking with her for quite a while, trying to quell her fears and telling her what to do.

“I went into my safe room,” she reminded me on Saturday. “Just like you told me to.”  It must have been an awful night for Marla and her two dogs, hunkered down in a tiny bathroom with Hurricane Frances sweeping across her city.

Yet, she and the dogs made it through with virtually no damage to her apartment complex (Marla was very concerned about her windows since she didn’t have shutters). Her power was out, a few trees and fences were down but she was OK.   When Marla stopped by on Saturday she gave me a big hug and said “Thank you.”

Since Frances, Jeanne and Wilma lots of other nice people have said “thank you” to me and the rest of the weather team for our hurricane coverage. For me, that “thank you” just reinforces the responsibility we have as broadcasters to do our best when times are tough. It is a great compliment but it also makes me work a little harder.

Thanks, Marla

Helping The Heartland

Field of Dreams is one of my all-time favorite movies. Nominated for an Academy Award for Best picture, it was the feel-good film of 1989. If you believe the impossible, the movie’s tag line said, then the incredible can come true.

This wonderful movie tells the story of Iowa novice farmer Ray Kinsella (played by Kevin Costner) who hears a voice in his corn field.  “If you build it,” the voice says. “He will come.”

“It” is a baseball diamond in the middle of the corn field and “he” is Shoeless Joe Jackson, a star player for the Chicago White Sox who, along with a number of other players, was banned from baseball for throwing the 1919 World Series.

Ray’s wife, Annie (played by Amy Madigan) is, not surprisingly, a little skeptical but encourages Ray to follow his vision.  He builds the baseball diamond, Shoeless Joe and other long-dead baseball players return to play ball and the movie has a happy ending.

There is, obviously, much more to this fantasy film that tells us that dreams can come true and that people can overcome any regrets about the choices they have made in their lives. It is a film that puts a smile on your face.

Several times throughout the movie the baseball players ask Ray a simple question. “Is this Heaven?” Ray, with a sheepish grin on his face, answers just as simply. “No,” he says, “It’s Iowa.”

I thought of that line and this wonderful movie while watching all the trouble folks in Iowa have been experiencing for the past few weeks. To say that Mother Nature has been unkind to the Hawkeye state would be an understatement.

First came the tornadoes. In late May, an EF-5 tornado on the Enhanced Fujita Scale tore through the tiny Iowa town of Parkersburg. With sustained winds of 205 mph, the powerful tornado nearly destroyed the city.

A few weeks later, a Boy Scout camp in western Iowa was hit by another tornado. The twister claimed four lives and injured dozens more.

Then, came the flooding.  The rains started in late May and didn’t end until the middle of June. The result? Some of the worst flooding in more than a decade.

“It looks like Katrina,” a Cedar Rapids man told the Washington Post as he surveyed his flooded community. Local residents told the newspaper that this year’s flooding was worse than the record-breaking floods of 1993.

At one point, more than 400 blocks of downtown Cedar Rapids were evacuated because of the rising flood waters. Des Moines and Iowa City were also hit hard by recent flooding.

While the waters have receded across Iowa (flooding issues continue south of Iowa along the Mississippi River) it will take some time and lots of money for the state to recover. That’s one of the reason’s WPBF-TV is broadcasting our Help the Heartland program.

We’ve teamed up with the American Red Cross to help raise funds for the victims of the flooding. This afternoon from 4 until 6:30 we will open up our phone lines to take your pledge. You can also pledge through out web site.

With your help, maybe we can bring back a little bit of Heaven to the people of Iowa.

Surveillance Cameras and Weather

It used to be that the only place you’d find a surveillance camera was inside a bank snapping fuzzy, black and white photos of anyone moronic enough to attempt a robbery. Today, surveillance cameras are everywhere, capturing crystal clear, often color, images of nearly every aspect of our society.

Cameras monitor roads, highways and interstates, keep watch over mall parking lots and sleeping babies, and, yes, scan busy bank employees in case that moronic robber makes a comeback. There are hundreds of thousands of cameras forming a virtual army of unblinking eyes, cameras making, to say the least, a unique historical recording of the 21 century.

In recent weeks, two surveillance cameras captured the power of one of Nature’s most powerful products: an EF-5 tornado. The tornado that tore through Parkersburg, Iowa in late May produced sustained winds of 205 mph, becoming a rare Enhanced Fujita Scale 5 tornado. Only about two percent of the annual 1,200 twisters reach that intensity.

Both surveillance cameras, ironically, were part of a Parkersburg bank.

One camera kept watch over the lobby while the other was outside in the ATM. Both captured amazing, jaw dropping images of the twister.

Video from the lobby camera is especially compelling. It shows an empty lobby (the Parkersburg tornado hit on a Sunday afternoon so no one was inside the bank at the time of the severe weather) with your standard desks and chairs. At the top of the image is a large window.

As the tornado approaches, you can see wind and rain pelting the window.

Suddenly, the sky grows very dark, the window explodes and chaos ensues.

Chairs and desks are thrown around the lobby while papers fly through the air. A second or two after the window explodes; the surveillance camera is knocked sideways. It is a good thing that no one was inside the bank when the twister hit.

The ATM camera video is pretty amazing in its own right. The video shows a house in a field. Suddenly, you see the tornado sweep by the home, ripping the roof of the structure. It is not clear if anyone was in the house when the storm hit.

Thanks to these two surveillance cameras we were able to see the power of Mother Nature. Who knows what these ubiquitous sentinels will capture next.

Tornado Trouble

“The scariest place on earth is earth is directly in the path of an onrushing category 5 hurricane.” That is the prologue to David E. Fisher’s 1994 book The Scariest Place on Earth, Eye to Eye with Hurricanes (Random
House) It is a wonderful book, full of hurricane history and the personal story of Fisher’s ordeal with Hurricane Andrew.

Fisher, a prolific author (he’s written more than a dozen books of fiction and non-fiction) and professor at the University of Miami, readily admits that he (and nearly everyone else in South Florida) was not ready for Andrew. The book is a fascinating first-hand account of one of nature’s most powerful storms. It is a must-read for everyone in South Florida.

While there is little doubt that the scariest place on earth IS in the path of a category 5 hurricane, the residents of Parkersburg, Iowa may respectfully disagree. For them the scariest place on earth is directly in the path of an EF-5 tornado.

That’s what happened to the small Iowa community over the weekend during an outbreak of severe weather. The National Weather Service confirmed that an EF-5 (Enhanced Fujita Scale) twister tore through Parkersburg. The survey team says the tornado produced sustained winds of 205 mph.

Only about two percent of the more than 1,200 annual tornadoes in the United States are ranked an EF-5. The last EF-5 tornado hit Greensburg, Kansas last year destroying most of the town. The National Weather Service has classified seven EF-5 twisters over the last 15 years.

While EF-5 tornadoes are thankfully rare, tornadoes have become much more common during the first five months of 2008. “Right now, we’re on track to break all previous counts (of tornadoes) through the end of the year,” Greg Carbin, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service told the Associated Press.

The Storm Prediction Center reports a preliminary count of 1,191 twisters so far this year. That number is likely to drop a bit after duplicate sightings are removed. Still, we are on pace to challenge the 2004 record of 1,817 twister.

While some maybe quick to blame global warming for this year’s increase of tornadoes, Carbin has a one-work answer: May. May is historically the busiest tornado month of the year.

Hurricane Season Begins

By now, you’ve probably heard that the experts think the 2008 hurricane season will be a busy one. Last week, forecasters with the National Weather Service released their predictions for this season calling for “a 65 percent probability of an above normal season and a 25 percent probability of a near normal season. This means there is a 90 percent chance of a near or above normal season,” according to a NOAA new release.

Forecasters predict 12 to 16 named storms, 6 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes will form between June 1 and November 30 in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. An average season is 11 storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

“The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity,” said Conrad Lautenbacher, undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “It does not predict whether, where or when any of these storms may hit land.”

That, of course, is what everyone wants to know. While I respect the science and the forecasters who issue those seasonal predictions, the one question these folks cannot answer is where or if any of those storms will make landfall. Still, at least one forecaster tries.

Joe Bastardi, senior forecaster for Accu-Weather (WPBF-TV partners with Accu-Weather for our 24-hour local weather channel, Weather First.TV) not only predicts the number of storms that will form this year but where they are mostly likely to make landfall.

Joe thinks the eastern seaboard from the Carolinas north to New England will be ground zero for landfalling storms this year. “My forecast is that two or three storms will bring at least tropical force winds to the coastline between Florida and New England, including one or two that bring hurricane force winds, and one major hurricane,” writes Joe on the Accu-Weather Professional Web site. (The Professional Web site is a subscription-based web site. Go to Accu-Weather.com for more information).

Still, other areas of the United States may be affected, too. In fact, Joe writes that the entire US coastline could be hit by a storm. The Gulf Coast, for example, may experience “at least 7-10 days with disruptions or threats of disruptions,” writes Joe.

Still, according to Joe, the “greatest threat of higher than average tropical storm and hurricane impact on the east coast of the United States with emphasis on the Carolinas northward.”

Wet Season

Record high temperatures, steadily increasing humidity and afternoon thunderstorms; that sure sounds like the beginning of South Florida’s wet season. And, for a chance, it looks like it is starting right on time.

The average date for the start of the wet season is May 21 for Palm Beach County and May 23 for the Treasure Coast. This information comes from the National Weather Service offices in Melbourne and Miami.

Jim Lushine, the retired warning coordination meteorologist for the Miami office, and Raymond Biedinger, examined weather records since the 1950’s to come up with the average start of the wet season.

The duo discovered that the earliest beginning date of the wet season was April 16 and the latest June 3. “Based on these dates, the average duration of the summer season was 152 days or just less than 5 months,” the two meteorologists reported. “The shortest summer season was only 118 days in 1983 which was the year that had the earliest ending date. The longest summer season was 195 days which occurred in 1995.”

The two meteorologists reported that precipitation totals during these established summer seasons “ranged from the least amount of 24.75 inches in 1987 to the greatest amount of 74.85 inches in 1968. The average amount was 40.86 inches.”

Randy Lascody, a senior forecaster with the Melbourne office, determined that the average starting date of the wet season for Fort Pierce and Stuart is May 22, while the average starting date for Vero Beach and Sebastian is May 23.

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Gray’s Forecast

It began with a simple premise: to predict the future, study the past. Dr. William Gray’s exhaustive study of past hurricane seasons led to a forecasting revolution in the early 1980’s when he was the first to issue a seasonal hurricane prediction.

Initially, despite Gray’s impressive credentials as a hurricane researcher, his seasonal forecast was met by skepticism. After all, the critics said, how can anyone predict the number of tropical storms and hurricanes that will form in the Atlantic Ocean months in advance?

Yet, Gray persevered, issuing his forecasts on a regular basis and gradually gaining acceptance from the scientific community. Especially, since his low tech approach (study the past to predict the future) was working.

Gray became something of a legend. So much so, that a tradition was born: at the conclusion of every major hurricane conference Gray would get the last word. After all the speeches, workshops and seminars, Gray would end each conference with his forecast for the coming season.

That forecast, however, has been off the mark for the past couple of seasons. And, for the first time since the early 1980s’, Gray’s seasonal hurricane predictions have come under fire.

It began with veteran hurricane reporter Martin Merzer of the Miami Herald who questioned the need for seasonal predictions. “Why do they bother?” Merzer wondered. “And given the errors are these full-season forecasts doing more harm than good.”

The Weather Channel pretty much agreed when it reminded viewers “seasonal hurricane forecasts are inherently very uncertain and impossible to accurately predict critical details such as track, intensity, size and impact of any tropical cyclone months or weeks in advance.”

One of Florida’s most famous hotel owners, Harris Rosen, took the criticism a step further when he threatened Gray with a lawsuit. Rosen is convinced that Florida has lost billions of dollars in tourist business because of Gray’s hurricane forecast.

“Look, doctor, you’ve made these forecasts and you were wrong once,” Rosen told Orlando TV station WKMG. “You made the forecast and you were wrong twice. Are you going to continue to make these forecasts?”

The answer, of course, is yes. In fact, Gray has already issued his first prediction for the 2008 season. Once again, he is forecasting an active year with 13 storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major storms.
Dr. Jeff Masters, the creator of the popular Weather Underground web site, believes the criticism of Gray and his seasonal forecast “are the inevitable result of a culture where seasonal hurricane forecasts, which are not very good, are excessively hyped by both the forecasters and the media”

Writing in his online blog, Dr. Masters believes “the forecasters have set them selves up for such shrill condemnations by putting out these very public forecasts, complete with press conferences, but not properly emphasizing the uncertainties and low skill of their forecasts.”

While’s Gray’s recent forecasts have been unsuccessful, his overall record-especially in determining if a season will be active or quiet-has been strong. Still, the problem may lie in the media’s interpretation of the prediction.

These days Gray’s forecasts are treated like a major news event garnering headlines in newspapers and extensive reports on television and radio newscasts. The forecasts are often perceived as Gospel, not guidance by many news reporters.

So, what should you think the next time you read or hear a seasonal hurricane forecast from Dr. Gary? Well, that his forecast is useful to the insurance industry and emergency planners, it is a skilled suggestion of the type of season we can expect, and a reminder that we live in hurricane country.

Still, Gray cannot answer the most important question: Will a storm hit us in 2008?

What Follows Two Days Of Rain?

It is a very old joke but it still brings a smile to my face. What follows two days of rain? Why, Monday, of course.

I hate to admit but I’ve used that little gag from time to time on television following a wet, dreary weekend across South Florida. It is an admittedly weak attempt to make folks feel a little better after the weatherman spoiled their weekend of fun with lots of rain.

Our most recent period of weekend weather has been mostly good including the gorgeous sunshine, brisk breeze and cool temperatures of last Saturday and Sunday. And, according to a new study, more great weekends may be in our future.

Thomas Bell, an atmospheric scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, discovered that storms developing during the workweek tend to produce more rain than storms that occur on the weekend.

Using data from NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM), Bell examined rainfall patterns across the Southeast from 1998 to 2005. He found that more rain fell between Tuesdays and Thursdays than between Saturday’s and Mondays. And, those weekday storms tended to be more violent that storms on the weekend.

Bell’s study reports that afternoon rainfall peaked on Tuesday’s, when an average of 1.8 times more rain fell than on Saturdays. According to Bell’s study, Saturdays saw the least amount of afternoon rain.

Of course, the obvious question facing Bell and his colleagues was why was it raining more during the workweek? The answer? An increase in pollution.

Bell compared his weather data with information from the Environmental Protection Agency on particulate matter associated with pollution across the country from 1998 to 2005. The data suggests pollution tended to reach its peak during mid-week.

“If two things happen at the same time, it doesn’t mean one thing caused the other,” Bell told the editors of Weatherwise Magazine. “But it’s well known that particulate matter has the potential to affect how clouds behave, and this kind of evidence makes the argument for a stronger link between pollution and heavier rainfall.”

That particulate matter tends to increase during the workweek, Bell says, thanks to busy roads and highways, active businesses and factories, and the pace of life in the 21st century. Bell believes that extra pollution helps “seed” the cloud, enhancing their rainfall potential.

During weekends there is lot less traffic on the highways, many businesses and factories shutdown while more people have a couple of days off from work. The result: less rain on Saturday and Sunday.

“It’s eerie to think that we’re affecting the weather,” Bell said. “It appears we are making storms more violent.”

Based on Bell’s new study, it might be time to make a few amendments to that old joke about weekend rain. The new version? What follows five days of rain? The weekend.

The Super Storm

I thought March 8, 1993 was going to be another routine day of weather forecasting here in South Florida. March is one of my favorite months since it often features warm, dry days and cool, clears nights. The heat and oppressive humidity of summer usually are still a few weeks away.

When I arrived at the television station that Monday afternoon and began examining the weather maps I was shocked at what they showed. The long-range computer models were predicting a massive storm would sweep across the eastern United States beginning on Friday, March 12th.

This couldn’t be right, I thought. After all, the models were predicting a storm of historic proportions, a storm comparable to a major hurricane. Still, the model data couldn’t be ignored so I included a chance of thunderstorms in the long-range forecast.

When I returned to work the next day I was anxious to see what the computer models were saying about the alleged super storm. Back in 1993, computer modeling was in its infancy so it was quite common to see one model run predict a giant storm while the next run of the computers would suggest sunshine was in the forecast.

Yet, on Tuesday March 9, the computer model continued its insistence that a massive storm was coming our way. Wednesday and Thursday’s model run remained remarkably consistent convincing me that a major storm was headed for the East Coast.

In 1993, TV stations didn’t broadcast 24 hours a day so I had to convince our management that we needed to stay on the air, all night long, to cover this massive storm. I’m glad we did because I had a front row seat to one of the most remarkable events in weather history.

It’s been called many names: the Storm of the Century, ‘93 Superstorm, the No-Name Hurricane, the White Hurricane or the Great Blizzard of ‘93. Whatever name you choose it will be remembered for its massive size (at its peak it stretched from Canada to Central America), it remarkable intensity (the storm’s lowest pressure was 960 mb, comparable to a category 3 hurricane) and its impact (it produced $10 billion in damages).

The storm hit Florida’s west coast first producing a squall line of thunderstorms that generated hurricane force wind. I remember talking with viewers who described near continuous lightning as the thunderstorms rolled across the eastern part of the state. Ten tornadoes were reported in
Florida including one that claimed three lives.

After moving across the Sunshine State, the squall line kept on going southeast slamming into Cuba with 100 mph winds. Power was knocked out across the entire island. It was the most powerful storm, other than a hurricane, to ever strike Cuba.

Further north the storm produced a winter nightmare across the eastern seaboard burying cities with several feet of snow and whipping winds of more than 60 mph. One town in Tennessee recorded 60 inches, while more than three feet of snow fell across Pennsylvania and upstate New York.

Birmingham, Alabama picked up an amazing 17 inches of snow with gusty winds producing 6-foot drifts. I remember talking with a reporter from a Birmingham TV station who said, not surprisingly, that the entire city was shut down.

So were most airports from Atlanta to Nova Scotia. It is estimated that the massive storm impacted 130 million Americans, about half the population in 1993.

When I left the TV station around 6 AM on Saturday, March 13, the heavy rains had ended but the gusty winds were still blowing. As I drove home with the sun beginning to rise, I could see some wind damage across our area. Thankfully, it wasn’t too significant.

In fact, Palm Beach fared pretty well with the Storm of the Century. For other parts of the United States, it would take several days to full recover from one of the most powerful storms in history.

I often remind young meteorologists that the computer models “are guidance, not Gospel.” Yet, 15 years ago this week, the computer models were remarkably accurate in predicting the Storm of the Century.

Weather And Video Games

I’m supposed to be a grownup. After all, I’m over 50 years old, my hair is turning gray and I’m lucky enough to have a wonderful family. Yet, I’m still a kid at heart, which may explain my fascination with video games.

A few years ago a group of us at the TV station purchased the XBOX 360 video console and several games. Within a few hours, I was hooked, spending many more hours sitting in front on my television while madly pushing the “A”, “X”, “B” and “Y” buttons on the wireless controller.

One of the really neat aspects of the XBOX console is the ability to compete against video game enthusiasts around the world. With your XBOX 360 connected to the Internet, you can play games and have conversations with folks anywhere on the planet. It was a real hoot the first time I played the Tiger Woods golf simulation game with someone from Australia.

So, why am I writing about video games when I should be talking about the weather? Well, it’s because video game programmers are including more real-world information (like the weather) in their games. And big companies, like The Weather Channel, are jumping on the video game bandwagon.

Take, for example, NCAA Football 08, a popular college football simulation game. Published by Entertainment Arts Sports (the same folks who make the top selling Madden NFL series). NCAA Football 08 captures the excitement and passion of college football. One of the game’s newest features is a tie-in with the Weather Channel.

After choosing teams for the game, gamers can click on The Weather Channel Live Feed to receive the current weather at the stadium. Let’s say, for example, that you picked the University of Miami Hurricanes to play the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee. After clicking on The Weather Channel Feed, your game will be played under the current weather in the state capitol, whether is sunny, wet, chilly or hot.

One of the most popular video games in history (it has sold more than 18 million games worldwide) is The Sims. Published by Electronic Arts, The Sims lets you create your own little world, an alternate reality of homes, businesses, neighborhoods and cities.

The most recent Sims game, SimCity Societies, even incorporates the effect of global warming. In the game, players build a community by placing roads, buildings and power sources throughout the region. The power sources range from options that emit high levels of carbon dioxide to more environmentally friendly alternatives like solar power and wind farms.

The game actually monitors the carbon released into the atmosphere as well as natural disasters like droughts, heat waves and powerful storms.

The video gamer is presented with a series of real-world issues that make the game seem more life-like than anyone could imagine.

“We have the opportunity to demonstrate the causes and effects of global warming,” said Steve Seabolt of Electronic Arts. “We can educate players how seemingly small choices can have a big global impact.”

Weather plays a big role in other video games, too. In Tiger Woods PGA Tour 08 you need to calculate how gusty winds will affect your shot to the green. And, in MLB 2K7, a simulation of major league baseball published by 2K Sports, rain delays are part of the video game just as in real life.

The goal is make the game more realistic. The addition of real-world information-like The Weather Channel Live Feed or the impact of global warming-it would appear that video game programmers are succeeding.

I’d like to write more about weather and video games but that guy in Australia wants to play golf again. Like I said, I’m supposed to be a grownup.